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Dynamic Local Regret for Non-convex Online Forecasting

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider online forecasting problems for non-convex machine learning models. Forecasting introduces several challenges such as (i) frequent updates are necessary to deal with concept drift issues since the dynamics of the environment change over time, and (ii) the state of the art models are non-convex models. We address these challenges with a novel regret framework. Standard regret measures commonly do not consider both dynamic environment and non-convex models. We introduce a local regret for non-convex models in a dynamic environment. We present an update rule incurring a cost, according to our proposed local regret, which is sublinear in time T. Our update uses time-smoothed gradients. Using a real-world dataset we show that our time-smoothed approach yields several benefits when compared with state-of-the-art competitors: results are more stable against new data; training is more robust to hyperparameter selection; and our approach is more computationally efficient than the alternatives.



d37eb50d868361ea729bb4147eb3c1d8-AuthorFeedback.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

We thank all the reviewers for their valuable comments and appreciation of the ideas and results presented in the paper. We summarize the main questions from the reviewers and address them separately below. T o Reviewer #1 Q1: Network connectivity is presumably known . . . it seems all the graphs considered are com-3 We note that the network connectivity is not assumed to be known. T o Reviewer #3 Q1: Scope of the paper/Missing related work. " and "FedNAS" are about We can add an explanation to clarify the MTL scope of the paper.


Asteroid shape inversion with light curves using deep learning

Tang, YiJun, Ying, ChenChen, Xia, ChengZhe, Zhang, XiaoMing, Jiang, XiaoJun

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Asteroid shape inversion using photometric data has been a key area of study in planetary science and astronomical research.However, the current methods for asteroid shape inversion require extensive iterative calculations, making the process time-consuming and prone to becoming stuck in local optima. We directly established a mapping between photometric data and shape distribution through deep neural networks. In addition, we used 3D point clouds to represent asteroid shapes and utilized the deviation between the light curves of non-convex asteroids and their convex hulls to predict the concave areas of non-convex asteroids. We compared the results of different shape models using the Chamfer distance between traditional methods and ours and found that our method performs better, especially when handling special shapes. For the detection of concave areas on the convex hull, the intersection over union (IoU) of our predictions reached 0.89. We further validated this method using observational data from the Lowell Observatory to predict the convex shapes of the asteroids 3337 Milo and 1289 Kuta, and conducted light curve fitting experiments. The experimental results demonstrated the robustness and adaptability of the method


Dynamic Local Regret for Non-convex Online Forecasting

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider online forecasting problems for non-convex machine learning models. Forecasting introduces several challenges such as (i) frequent updates are necessary to deal with concept drift issues since the dynamics of the environment change over time, and (ii) the state of the art models are non-convex models. We address these challenges with a novel regret framework. Standard regret measures commonly do not consider both dynamic environment and non-convex models. We introduce a local regret for non-convex models in a dynamic environment.


Dynamic Local Regret for Non-convex Online Forecasting

Aydore, Sergul, Zhu, Tianhao, Foster, Dean P.

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider online forecasting problems for non-convex machine learning models. Forecasting introduces several challenges such as (i) frequent updates are necessary to deal with concept drift issues since the dynamics of the environment change over time, and (ii) the state of the art models are non-convex models. We address these challenges with a novel regret framework. Standard regret measures commonly do not consider both dynamic environment and non-convex models. We introduce a local regret for non-convex models in a dynamic environment.


Dynamic Local Regret for Non-convex Online Forecasting

Aydore, Sergul, Zhu, Tianhao, Foster, Dean

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider online forecasting problems for non-convex machine learning models. Forecasting introduces several challenges such as (i) frequent updates are necessary to deal with concept drift issues since the dynamics of the environment change over time, and (ii) the state of the art models are non-convex models. We address these challenges with a novel regret framework. Standard regret measures commonly do not consider both dynamic environment and non-convex models. We introduce a local regret for non-convex models in a dynamic environment. We present an update rule incurring a cost, according to our proposed local regret, which is sublinear in time T. Our update uses time-smoothed gradients. Using a real-world dataset we show that our time-smoothed approach yields several benefits when compared with state-of-the-art competitors: results are more stable against new data; training is more robust to hyperparameter selection; and our approach is more computationally efficient than the alternatives.